2023 Year End 3D Round Up
What the heck happened this year!?!?
Welp…we did it!! We made it to the end of a turbulent year for 3D artists. In this final 2023 post, I want to reflect on the highs and lows of the past year and take a sneak peek at what 2024 may have in store.
Layoffs
You can’t discuss working as a 3D artist in 2023 without mentioning layoffs. Studio closures and job cuts were widespread, with Cartoon Brew admirably tracking the entire situation. Estimates suggest 10-15% of all artists in VFX, animation, and gaming lost jobs this past year, but concrete numbers are impossible to confirm. Moreover, these figures don't account for artists who didn't have contracts renewed.
Several factors contributed to this. Strikes across the industry, combined with a tech sector slowdown after record pandemic growth, generated economic uncertainty - the perfect conditions for a turbulent year.
No Entry Level Positions
It’s worth noting that these layoffs had a double-whammy effect on Junior Artists and newcomers to our industry. With the job market flooded with seasoned talent, entry-level positions virtually vanished overnight. Companies could be selective, and those lacking experience faced nearly impossible odds of employment.
AI Unease
2023 was the year of the growth of generative AI. New text-to-image models, text-to-video tutorials, and tweets warning "3D animators will soon be unemployed because of this new app" fueled unease. While few actual AI projects impacted the 3D space, implications for the future were significant and caused a significant amount of stress.
Artists questioned if everyone would soon generate any image from text prompts, jeopardizing long-term career viability.
The No CGI Movement
A wave of directors and filmmakers also proudly proclaimed no CGI was used in their projects claiming “real” or “authentic” audience experiences by avoiding 3D.
While largely misguided, these declarations (compounded by layoffs and AI worries) made artists question the industry’s future.
Reasons For Optimism in 2024
For all of those reasons above (and more) 2023 was rough for almost everyone. BUT, we are still here and I am still optimistic about the future of 3D!
Strikes Are Over
Yes, the strikes sucked. But they are in the past! There is a light at the end of the tunnel and we are already starting to see hiring pick up to kick off 2024.
Momentum Toward Worker’s Rights
The strikes also amplified conversations around unionization and better working conditions – discussions formerly peripheral. With artists made so vulnerable, worker rights are now centralized, and I anticipate more unions emerging alongside improved practices.
Generative AI Cooldown
The constant announcements of new capabilities developing across industries fueled hype. However, entering 2024, we better grasp realistic applications.
For 3D artists, AI appears set to handle minor redundant tasks, not wholly replace our skills. Credible threats like text-to-complete 3D model generation feel distant. The Kaedim scandal exemplified this – fraudulently claiming AI image creation when cheap labor was utilized.
Many large companies have also been reluctant to dive head-first into AI-generated content. As expected, they are hesitant about a new method of creating intellectual property if that creation can’t be protected because a machine and not human hands crafted it.
What seems more likely is that we instead see AI assist 3D artists, similar to Github’s Copilot, which helps engineers code faster by suggesting syntax fixes and lines of code. This increases efficiency without replacement.
While AI could still significantly disrupt our industry quicker than anticipated, complete replacement by unproven technologies seems unlikely soon.
Apple VR Headset
VR has been quiet recently, but Apple’s new headset may spark its resurgence in 2024. From what I’ve seen, it significantly improves the user experience - laying the groundwork for regular integration.
This could be game-changing for 3D artists, opening new business avenues to capitalize on greater adoption.
3D & VFX Still Dominating Films
If you look at the list of top-grossing films of 2023, one thing is abundantly clear…3D and VFX are still on top. Of the top-grossing films of 2023, 3 of them are entirely 3D while the other 7 are VFX-heavy (despite what their marketing teams will tell you.)
Video Games Sales Are Also Up
After 2022’s decline, video game sales rebounded nicely in 2023, indicating further growth potential for 2024. Games are also continuing to enter the mainstream - the successes of media adaptations like The Last of Us suggest more movies and shows based on gaming IPs lie ahead.
Overall, I foresee our industry bouncing back robustly in 2024!
The 3D Artist 2023 Roundup
Another milestone in 2023 was launching this newsletter. Initially, I simply envisioned creating a space to engage with the 3D community, without plans for growth or monetization.
Honestly, I contemplated writing a book but felt too daunted, so the newsletter seemed a good alternative outlet. I never expected it to be this successful.
Some key statistics:
Total 2023 Newsletters: 52
Subscribers: 841
Paid Subscribers: 3 ($160 in 2023)
Total Views: 51,109
Now read in 35 US states and 67 countries
But the connections and conversations generated are what matter most, not the metrics. Writing each article gives me some anxiety, but the incredible feedback keeps me motivated.
I'm thankful for every reader who joins me on this journey - it's humbling whenever anyone reaches the end of a post. I'm devoted to continuing to earn your trust by transparently sharing my experiences as a 3D artist.
Looking Ahead
In 2024, I intend to expand this community further and explore more interactive features. But there will be plenty of time for that later.
For now, I just want to express my gratitude to all of you who have been along for the ride thus far. It has been quite a year, and I look forward to continue creating things worth reading in 2024!
3D News of the Week
Epic Games beat Google but lost to Apple in monopoly lawsuits. What does it all mean? - NPR.com
Check out RISE’s VFX breakdown for ‘Ghosted’ - Before & Afters
Announcing Textures AI. State of the art de-lighting and photo-to-material generation tool - Textures.Com
E3 is officially over forever - The Verge
How Netflix And Annapurna Resurrected One Of The Most Courageous Animated Films Of All Time, ‘Nimona’ - Cartoon Brew
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Hello! Michael Tanzillo here. I am the Head of Technical Artists with the Substance 3D Growth team at Adobe. Previously, I was a Senior Artist on animated films at Blue Sky Studios/Disney with credits including three Ice Age movies, two Rios, Peanuts, Ferdinand, Spies in Disguise, and Epic.
In addition to his work as an artist, I am the Co-Author of the book Lighting for Animation: The Visual Art of Storytelling and the Co-Founder of The Academy of Animated Art, an online school that has helped hundreds of artists around the world begin careers in Animation, Visual Effects, and Digital Imaging. I also created The3DArtist.Community and this newsletter.
www.michaeltanzillo.com
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